{"id":38785,"date":"2025-04-08T16:08:26","date_gmt":"2025-04-08T14:08:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ipisresearch.be\/?post_type=publication&p=38785"},"modified":"2025-04-08T16:08:28","modified_gmt":"2025-04-08T14:08:28","slug":"countering-illicit-arms-and-armed-groups-across-greater-west-africa-re-setting-priorities-and-the-utility-of-large-scale-data","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/ipisresearch.be\/nl\/publication\/countering-illicit-arms-and-armed-groups-across-greater-west-africa-re-setting-priorities-and-the-utility-of-large-scale-data\/","title":{"rendered":"Countering illicit arms and armed groups across Greater West Africa: Re-setting priorities and the utility of large-scale data"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Eric Berman1<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Greater West Africa is undergoing significant turmoil. In the past five years, more than half of the region\u2019s countries2<\/a><\/sup> have experienced a coup attempt (a growing threat<\/a> across the continent) or are confronting armed secessionist movements.3<\/a><\/sup> While some countries have made progress in confronting the growing threat of armed violence, other states\u2019 abilities to govern have deteriorated. The ready supply of illicit small arms and ammunition\u2014and sometimes even heavy weapons systems\u2014facilitates violent extremism and undermines the rule of law.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Current rhetoric and agendas divert both attention and scarce resources from making greater progress on combatting the illicit proliferation of arms to non-state armed groups across the region. The overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi led to large outflows<\/a> of arms and combatants from Libya to neighbouring and nearby countries as well as those further afield. Weapons from that conflict zone\u2014and other parts of the continent<\/a>\u2014are known to circulate on the black market for many years due to persistent demand, well entrenched clandestine networks and small arms\u2019 durability. The trade is difficult to quantify given that it operates in the shadows. That said, claims<\/a> that arms from Libya continue to fuel conflicts in the Lake Chad Basin region have more to do with diverting attention from actual sources of illicit arms flows than in highlighting meaningful current threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, officials of governments and regional organisations are quick to identify \u201cporous borders\u201d as undermining national security. And considerable ink is spilled to highlight the challenge and efforts to address it. Without dismissing these concerns or the need to evaluate various interventions, doing so must not dilute attention to, or resources for, the much greater problem addressed in this paper: the diversion of state arsenals to non-state armed groups within a country\u2019s borders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Understanding the map<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The incidents displayed on the map above <\/strong>indicate the challenge governments\u2014and governmental organisations\u2014face when it comes to safeguarding state-owned weapons from enemy attack. More than a thousand assaults have occurred on uniformed personnel in the region between 2020 and 2024, with several hundred incidents likely resulting in the diversion of lethal materiel. Only 107 of these events4<\/a><\/sup> are pictured here: 100 from the 18 countries within the region as well as 7 from Algeria and the Central African Republic (CAR) (as they too appear on the map and therefore deserve inclusion). These 107 attacks cover a broad cross section of perpetrators, targets, and situations, each of which is unpacked in turn below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But first, some important caveats. The Safeguarding Security Sector Stockpiles (S4<\/sup>) Data Set<\/a> consists of more than 2,500 records of attacks on security forces in more than 25 countries. Yet the database is still in its early stages of development and is very much a work in progress. It is not possible at this juncture to offer a truly representative sampling.5<\/a><\/sup>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n